June 15th, 2006at 07:09am Posted by Eli

Ooo, now this is really encouraging (by way of firedoglake):

Want to know why supporters of Sen. Joe Lieberman are planning an independent bid? A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Lieberman leading primary challenger Ned Lamont (D) by just six percentage points, 46% to 40%.

There are some issues with the poll, such as a small sample size (218) and large margin of error (7%), but the results are a clear sign that Lamont is gaining traction.

Wow. By my informal and uninformed calculations, those numbers would put Lamont in striking distance already, by virtue of much more energized and motivated turnout. In that same post, Jane quotes an e-mail from Colin McEnroe which makes the opposite point, i.e., that Lieberman’s superior organization could win him the turnout battle. This is certainly possible, but here are two reasons why Lieberman may not have an edge here:

1) How do you make GOTV work decisively in your favor in a primary? They’re all registered Democrats, so how do you know who to target? Couldn’t Lieberman’s organization simply end up turning out Lamont voters?

2) I’m not expert on this, but I have frequently heard unions described as a huge and experienced resource when it comes to the “ground game” – and Joementum may be losing them.

I’m very, very hopeful right now. As I’ve said repeatedly before, we really need this win. Not only would we get rid of Lieberman’s reliably Republican vote in the Senate, but taking a high-profile scalp like Joe’s would announce the netroots’ arrival as a force to be reckoned with. (Underlying message: Vichy Dems, watch your butts.)

I’m sure there’s lots that can go wrong between now and the primary, and if there are any Diebold and/or vote suppression shenanigans, you can be sure they’ll be in Joementum’s favor, but if this trend continues for another two months, it may not matter. And if the “D”SCC supports Joe even if he bolts the party and runs as an independent, we should target Schumer next. Completely worthless status quo toady.

Entry Filed under: Politics,Polls

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