Archive for August 5th, 2006

Cold Showers From Bowers

Chris Bowers at MyDD has the mother of all Don’t-Get-Cocky posts:

Due to the low information voters factor, analysts have always believed that higher turnout, which will bring in more low-information voters, will help Lieberman….

….The closer Ned Lamont appear to come to victory on August 8th, the more the media pays attention to what could potentially become a major event in recent American political history. The media attention n this race could now barely become any greater. It is now regularly among the top three U.S. stories on Google News, and at numerous times over the past month has been the number one U.S. story on Google News. Every major national news outlet, as well as every news outlet in Connecticut, has become obsessed with this story. The rather stunning amount of attention that has been paid to this race will drive up turnout. This will increase the number of low-information voters within the electorate, and that will help Joe Lieberman. That fact alone makes the polls less favorable to Ned Lamont that they currently appear to be.

(…)

Combine new voter registrations with low information voters with what is clearly a still massive Lieberman ground game–a ground game that analysts have said can add up to five point for Lieberman in this election–and suddenly you have an election within the margin of error. Throw in both public and internal polls that show the race closer than the 13 point Lamont lead from the Q-poll, and you have an election teetering on a knife edge. For Lamont backers, our concern right now should not be with blowing Lieberman out, but rather with winning this election at all. We can only do that if we get on the ground in Connecticut and help out.

My belief has always been that turnout would favor Lamont, because I expect Lamont’s supporters to be more passionate and motivated than Lieberman’s. But if everybody wants to vote because suddenly the primary is a big deal, then that neutralizes Lamont’s advantage.

And so, it comes down to Passion vs. Ignorance, and The People vs. The Powerful. Go, Passion! Go, The People!

9 comments August 5th, 2006 at 03:22pm Posted by Eli

Entry Filed under: Politics,Polls


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