2 comments December 19th, 2007at 08:00pm Posted by Eli
Hey, remember what a great uplifting story it was about how Mike Huckabee went on a special liquid diet and lost 110 lbs. in just one year? Well, um, about that…
It has been rumored that Huckabee’s weight loss was due not to diet and exercise but to gastric bypass (bariatric) surgery. This blog seeks to examine the evidence that is publicly available, to determine whether weight loss from diet/exercise or bariatric surgery is more likely. Because evidence such as witnesses, money trail, etc are lacking, the analysis is primarily medical. The principle used is the Law of Parsimony, a medical application of Occam’s Razor, in which the validity of a diagnosis is gauged by the degree to which it explains all the clinical findings, without the need to add further diagnoses.
The findings are as follows:
- Huckabee’s vague history of diet/exercise doesn’t adequately explain his astonishing result.
- His spokeswoman provides an ambiguous denial denial of bariatric surgery.
- Massive and persistent weight loss with bariatric surgery is about 100x more common than with diet/exercise.
- Bariatric surgery has a highly characteristic weight loss pattern that Huckabee’s weight loss record fits exactly for rapidity, amount and maintenance. This pattern is not at all like that of diet/exercise.
- Huckabee demonstrates changes in physical appearance that appear bariatric both in general and the specific (hair loss and skin changes).
- His particular diet habits are tellingly bariatric.
- Just prior to his rapid weight loss he took an unusual vacation with a furtive itinerary and end date which provided a plausible window for a private hospitalization and recovery.
- In 2005, Huckabee required abdominal hernia surgery, an expected complication of bariatric surgery. This was termed a Spigelian hernia, which are so vanishingly rare that it appears more likely to be used as a cover story for a post-bariatric inscisional hernia.
- While running marathons Huckabee is shown carrying that energy supplementation, that is both expected of, and associated with, bariatric marathoners.
- The lack of any identified witnesses to the bariatric surgery/hospitalization is adequately explained by medical privacy ethical standards as well as the rigor of Federal HIPAA privacy regulations.
In applying the above mentioned Law of Parsimony, it is evident that the one explanation of bariatric surgery readily, even exactly, satisfies every clinical finding.
Diet/exercise alone is not sufficient to explain the findings; its use as a explanation depends on first compiling a series of highly improbable findings (rapid, massive weight loss), and then introducing new conditions and diagnoses (e.g. rare hernias, hair loss). Making the clinical finding fit bariatric surgery is as effortless as diet/exercise is labored.
This is, in fact, only a summary – the complete case with the specifics behind each bullet point can be found here. For what it’s worth, the blogger is a Republican worried about Huckabee winning the primary and being exposed in the general.
Entry Filed under: Huckabee