Yeahbut.

1 comment June 2nd, 2008at 10:41pm Posted by Eli

This is great news for the congressional races, but I don’t think it’s quite the slamdunk Darryl thinks for the presidential:

Every month, Rasmussen Reports releases a new partisan trends report based on monthly interviews of a huge number of people:

…the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

During the month of April, 41.4% of Americans considered themselves to be Democrats. Just 31.4% said they were Republicans and 27.2% were not affiliated with either major party.

April was the third straight month that the number of Democrats topped 41%. Prior to February of this year, neither party had ever reached the 39% level of support.
[…]

The partisan gap now shows the Democrats with a 10.0 percentage point advantage over the Republicans. That’s the largest advantage ever recorded by either party. In fact, before these past three months, the previous high was a 6.9 point percentage point edge for the Democrats in December 2006.

(…)

Republicans reached their peak numbers of 37.3% in September of 2004, and have been on a slow decline since.

Until about six months ago, the Democrats were holding steady at about 37% Democratic voter identity. The rise since December has been nothing short of stunning. Democrats had 36.3% identity in December and shot up to 41.5% in February—just about the time that the race started heating up.

(…)

A cautious statement would be that any damage done by the primary contest is minor at worst, as the damage has been more than offset by the Republican collapse, resulting in a net gain for Democrats.

An alternative explanation is that the primary-from-hell really has been a good thing for Democrats.

The thing is, will all those Democrats vote for Obama?  How many of them are pissed-off Clinton supporters who are more angry at Obama than afraid of McCain?  I think the Democrats should clean up in the downticket races – unless the Hillary supporters are so pissed off that they stay home altogether – but until I see Hillary enthusiastically campaigning for Obama (as she has said she will), I’m going to be nervous.  And maybe even after that, if her supporters don’t come with her.

Entry Filed under: Democrats,Elections,Politics,Polls

1 Comment

  • 1. Cujo359  |  June 3rd, 2008 at 12:44 am

    My guess is that how Obama does will be somewhat affected by how well the Clintons support him. However, I also note that there’s been very little correlation between how Congressional Democrats do and how the Democratic Presidential candidates do. This has been particularly true since the ’90s.

    There’s also the fact, which I’ve remarked on a time or two I think, that all the general feelings of preference for one party or another largely go out the window once particular people are representing each party. That strikes me as a good thing – it means that at least some people are evaluating the candidates as people and arriving at a decision based on that.

    So, just on general principles, I don’t think that increased pro-Democratic partisanship means much of anything for Obama (or Clinton, for that matter, should the universe turn inside out) and McCain. It’s really going to come down to who Americans feel better about putting in the White House.


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