Has The Point Already Tipped?

1 comment August 4th, 2009at 07:16am Posted by Eli

Party ID by state

This can only be good for Republicans.

Chris Cillizza in the WaPo highlighted a new poll out today on party identification by state which contains not a grain of good news – for the Republican party.


The Republicans currently have an edge in just 5 states, Alaska, Alabama, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming. Since the last Gallup poll in 2008 measuring voter ID by state, 9 states have changed classification from one category to another. Virginia, Indiana, Florida, Georgia, South Dakota and Nebraska moved from the Republican category to the Democrat, Colorado, Nevada and Alabama moved toward the Republicans.

To put this in starker terms. Add up all the states which strongly identify as Republican and you have a total of 15 electoral votes. Do the same for the Democrats and you have a total of 350 electoral votes. Not a typo – 15 electoral votes for the Republicans and 350 for the Dems.

Declining poll numbers are transitory but voter ID tends to be more static. This poll is a stark reminder of the problems Republicans face in moving from their status as a regionally-based party into one with national appeal. Remember this when you hear the pundits breathlessly predicting a “Republican comeback.” It’s going to be hard to stage a comeback when you’ve only got a majority of voters in five states.

Regionally-based party?  There’s only one red state in the entire South – the only region where they have any concentration of states is a subset of the Mountain West.  Presumably turnout is a force-multiplier, and presumably the South still has a lot of registered Dixiecrats, but that’s still one hell of a bleak map for the GOP.

In the comments to a previous post, I said:

The problem with focusing on the crazies is that their demographic is shrinking. At a certain point, even 100% of the crazies won’t be enough. We may have passed that point already, in fact – I certainly hope so.

It kinda looks like maybe we have.  Now if we can just get the Democrats to stop acting like Republicans, we’ll be all set.

(h/t PW)

Entry Filed under: Politics,Polls,Republicans

1 Comment

  • 1. mvymvy  |  August 5th, 2009 at 11:54 am

    By the next presidential election, the National Popular Vote could determine the winner.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.

    The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes–that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    The bill is currently endorsed by over 1,659 state legislators (in 48 states) who have sponsored and/or cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.

    The National Popular Vote bill has passed 29 state legislative chambers, in small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Oregon, and both houses in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington. These five states possess 61 electoral votes — 23% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

    See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

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